Alternate history

[Bacchus]

Assume that Ugluk and company captured Frodo and Sam, and took them to Isengard. Saruman takes the Ring.

What happens next?

Presumably Sauron becomes aware of this relatively quickly, but what does he do? The Nazgul are instantly suspect, and likely Sauron would attempt to do something rather drastic to them. Can Sauron bypass Gondor and Rohan to assault Isengard? And what action can the Free peoples take?

Thoughts?

[Ilúvatar]

Bacchus - did you get this idea from the questions I posed on the Savvy Orc thread? I'll have to think about this and get back. I did think they were good questions.

[Tuor of Gondolin]

Interesting speculation.

[Bacchus]

Originally posted by Ilúvatar
Bacchus - did you get this idea from the questions I posed on the Savvy Orc thread? I'll have to think about this and get back. I did think they were good questions.
Yep, I did. I probably should have credited you, but was in a hurry-sorry.

[Ilúvatar]

Originally posted by Bacchus
Yep, I did. I probably should have credited you, but was in a hurry-sorry.
No problem. Just wasn't sure if it was conincidence or if you got the idea from the other thread.

[Kirinki54]

Good what-if!
Hmm... have to think this one over...

[The Gaffer]

There are clues in the text: in TTT, after the Palantir episode, Gandalf states that Saruman may have power within Orthanc to defy all of the Nazgul together, even without the Ring. Hence one of the things Sauron feared most was just this scenario.

I don't think we know enough about the power of the Ring to speculate much on what would've happened next. It would be fairly certain that Rohan and Gondor would have been crushed between the two, and probably Isengard would eventually have been besieged by Mordor.

[Tuor of Gondolin]

One possible scenario could be quite complicated. It's not impossible to envision a fairly complete Muster of Rohan allied with the ents destroying Saruman's army before he could wield the Ring effectively. recall that at The Last Debate Gandalf observes that "...we could not learn to wield the full power all in a day" (presumably including himself in those who would need time to use the Ring effectively).
Presumably Minas Tirith would fall and perhaps the Gondorites would resort to guerrilla warfare (there were escape routes through the White Mountains).
You would have Saruman in Orthanc but without an army, Sauron with a large army threatening to besiege it, a mobile Rohirrim able to skirmish for some time, guerrilla warfare in South Gondor and the White Mountains, perhaps a diversionary attack by Lorien.....
Ah, how about a surprise landing by Gandalf and Aragorn on top of Orthanc using the Great Eagles (sort of like Otto Skorzeny rescuing Mussolini near the end of World War II)? Or the ents finding a subterranean way into Orthanc? They'd have hobbits and dwarves with tunneling knowledge.

[Bacchus]

hmm, I think there are some potential problems with that. The delivery of Frodo and Sam to Orthanc implies that no hobbits arrive in Fangorn. Now perhaps Gandalf can serve the purpose of Merry and Pippin in rousing the Ents, but then who persuades Theoden to attack Saruman? I suspect that a disorganized Rohan falls, although bands of guerrila troops might survive under Eomer and Erkenbrand.

As for Gondor, recall that Sauron's premature attack was precipitated by Aragorn and the Palantir. Sauron now must abandon his planned conquest of Gondor and deal with Saruman before he can master the Ring. I think he attempts to use a blocking force to prevent Gondorian sorties into his supply lines, and strikes across Rohan towards Isengard.

[Attalus]

Originally posted by Bacchus
hmm, I think there are some potential problems with that.... I think he attempts to use a blocking force to prevent Gondorian sorties into his supply lines, and strikes across Rohan towards Isengard. I agree. I doubt not that Gondor, under Denethor and absent Boromir, would sit pat and await the outcome. If I were Sauron, I would garrison Minas Morgul and march in force along the road that the map shows between the White Mountains and the Entwash, assail Rohan, and drive through to Isengard. Théoden, still under Grima's spell, would have probably withdrawn to Helm's Deep and let them pass. Now, that would be something to see. As posted above, even Saruman couldn't learn all the Ring's possibilities all at once, so speed would be to Sauron's advantage.

[Tuor of Gondolin]

Originally posted by Attalus
Théoden, still under Grima's spell, would have probably withdrawn to Helm's Deep and let them pass
_____________________________________

But in that scenario wouldn't Saruman seek a real alliance with Rohan against Saruman's armies, using Wormtongue's influence?
If so, a combined force of the Rohirrim and Saruman's army, especially on open grassland, would be a potent force to oppose Sauron (if they could get along), especially with an unoccupied Gondor behind Sauron.


And, on a different point, couldn't Gandalf, riding Shadowfax, be instrumental both in rousing Theoden and convincing the ents to attack?

[brownjenkins]

i wonder if Saruman would still be somewhat of a pawn of Sauron's even if he had gotten possession of the ring... i always saw the ring as an extension of Sauron... not just some object of power

i don't know if Sauron was actually as afraid of someone else trying to use the ring as some might think... while he would have preferred to have it himself i think someone else trying to use it against him might be an acceptable alternative, since, much like what happened to the Nazgul, they would eventually come under his power

i'd envision something a little more underhanded... Sauron submitting for the moment to Saruman, followed by a two prong attack on Gondor while the Rohirrim hid in the hills... then at the victory party in Barad-dur Sauron would make his move and take back what was rightfully his

[Bacchus]

Originally posted by Tuor of Gondolin
But in that scenario wouldn't Saruman seek a real alliance with Rohan against Saruman's armies, using Wormtongue's influence?
If so, a combined force of the Rohirrim and Saruman's army, especially on open grassland, would be a potent force to oppose Sauron (if they could get along), especially with an unoccupied Gondor behind Sauron.
A very interesting idea. At the least, Saruman would hope to use the Rohirrim as shock troops. Perhaps Saruman's first task as Ringlord is to expand his influence with Theoden beyond mere delay and doubt into complete subjugation. But what of the "loyalist" Rohirrim-Eomer Erkenbrand, and the Western clans? I have a tough time picturing them marching alongside the Uruks.

And, on a different point, couldn't Gandalf, riding Shadowfax, be instrumental both in rousing Theoden and convincing the ents to attack?
Perhaps. But the time constraints are dicey. It takes the Ents several days to make a decision. I'm not sure Gandalf has those days.

[Bacchus]

Originally posted by brownjenkins
i wonder if Saruman would still be somewhat of a pawn of Sauron's even if he had gotten possession of the ring... i always saw the ring as an extension of Sauron... not just some object of power

i don't know if Sauron was actually as afraid of someone else trying to use the ring as some might think... while he would have preferred to have it himself i think someone else trying to use it against him might be an acceptable alternative, since, much like what happened to the Nazgul, they would eventually come under his power

i'd envision something a little more underhanded... Sauron submitting for the moment to Saruman, followed by a two prong attack on Gondor while the Rohirrim hid in the hills... then at the victory party in Barad-dur Sauron would make his move and take back what was rightfully his
This might be a workable strategy, and even has precedent in Numenor. However, a Ringless Sauron's major advantage lies in his armies. I tend to think that his first option is for a military victory over Isengard, followed by a direct attempt to take the Ring from Saruman. Letter 246 suggests that such a contest with Gandalf would be a pick-em, and probably Saruman would be similar.

[Valandil]

Oh... Ruin, Doom, Disaster, Despair!

Most of our heroes would probably be killed, the Shire would be completely enslaved and despoiled. Saruman probably WOULD get major elements of Rohan to join his Dunlendings and orcs... and maybe Gondor as well. Great war and destruction would have raged. The remaining high elves in Lindon, Imladris and Lorien would have departed into the West. Gandalf would plead with potential allies to no avail.

In the end, it's hard to say whether Sauron or Saruman would have won... but it would have hardly mattered to anyone else left alive, as their fate would have been much the same. What pockets held out in Erebor or along upper Anduin would have soon been crushed. A New World Order would take hold...

[Silmarien]

I'm inclined to agree with Valandil about the final outcome. Given how massive Sauron's army is, I think he would simply bypass Gondor, cross Rohan and besiege Orthanc. While he might not be able to get in, the end result would probably be Saruman holed up with the Ring and without an army. I assume even Saruman eventually needs food.

I think it's possible for Saruman to gain control of the Ring, but still be influenced by Sauron via the Palantir. One might see a Denethor-like scenario, where Sarumon's mind is eventually overthrown by the visions he is fed.

Even if it takes Sauron some time to get the Ring out of a sealed Orthanc, he will be more than capable of taking on Gondor and Rohan. As we know, the only hope the alliance had was to delay him long enough for the Ring to be destroyed. Take away that hope, and the West is doomed.

Unless, of course, a new quest is formed, to find a way into Orthanc and take the Ring once more toward Mordor....

Silmarien

[Valandil]

But if Denethor might have been inclined to use The Ring against Sauron himself, if given a chance - don't you think he might have joined Gondor's forces with Orthanc's? To him, Sauron was THE enemy, and to stand in opposition to him was everything. With all his study of the rings of power, perhaps Saruman could have gained skill with The One quite quickly... and even swayed some of Sauron's army to come over to him. Some elements of Rohan may have been dragged along - either due to Grima's influence over Theoden, or loyalty to Gondor (EDIT: or Saruman's 'ringly' influence). I can see Saruman potentially being the one to win out over Sauron in such a circumstance. But even if he won, he would have enslaved all his allies - and their lot would have been no better.

I'm not sure if Saruman could have controlled the Nazgul... didn't Sauron hold their rings?

[Attalus]

On maturer reflection, I think that as long as Sauron held the Nine, he would always have control over the Nine. As for Saruman, consider: the Ruling Ring was meant to have dominion over the other rings. The Nine did not wear their rings, so how could Saruman interfere with them, save through coercive sorcery? Another point: Could Saruman command Sauron himself, through the Nine and those of the Seven that he held?

[Valandil]

It may indeed have been perilous for Sauron to touch them (the 9 and remnants of the 7) again, once he was aware that Saruman held The One.

I guess whichever heroes of the fellowship who survived the orc attack near Amon Hen (presumably Aragorn, Legolas, Gimli - maybe a hobbit or two) would have been reduced to bystanders as the remaining events played themselves out. They would have considered it folly to join in with Saruman. Maybe they'd all head up to Thrainduil's kingdom (or each to his own) and dig in for an ill-fated 'last stand'...

[Bacchus]

Originally posted by Valandil
I'm not sure if Saruman could have controlled the Nazgul... didn't Sauron hold their rings? Yes he did, and the Nazgul were enslaved to them. But if the One controls the Nine, then wouldn't Saruman be able to override Sauron's orders through the Nine? Letter 246 indicates that Frodo would not have been able to do so immediately, but the implication is that he might have been able to given sufficient time (which he certainly would not have been given).

Gandalf indicates that, even without the Ring, Saruman might be able to capture a Nazgul. With the Ring, I think it is quite plausible that he could suborn them. Sauron's logical countermove is to destroy the Nine rings (and the Nazgul with them).

[Bacchus]

Originally posted by Attalus
Another point: Could Saruman command Sauron himself, through the Nine and those of the Seven that he held?
I doubt it. The Seven couldn't even control Dwarves, and the Second Age bearers of the Three avoided enslavement by merely forebearing to wear them.

[Attalus]

I agree; but how could Sauron control the Nine without using the Nine Rings? Wouldn't this open him to attack?