Box Office for TTT

[Ben]

How do you think TTT will do?

I predict around $65-70 million opening weekend (remember it opens Wednesday - FotR had a $47 mil opening weekend) with a total around $340 million.

I hope it can somehow outdo Spider-Man, but that's not likely. It can probably beat Harry Potter this time around, though.

[Asfaloth]

I don't think it will do quite that well. Maybe $280-290 million in total.

[IronParrot]

I predict a significantly larger opening than FOTR, due to an expanded fan base from the first film (plus the Oscar nominations to boot). Also observe how the first film's performance wasn't opening-heavy, but was based on lasting power in the box office - virtually the same total domestic gross as Philosopher's Stone, but with half the opening gross. Besides, I've already got my opening night tickets.

As for figures themselves... well, I'd make a modest prediction about the opening Fri-Sun period, as the majority of the dedicated fan base will generally drift towards the Wednesday opening day. Given the first film's $19M opening Wednesday, this one should sit in the $25-30M range. Then we're looking at a $60-70M opening weekend.

I would not count on Spider-Man figures, not by far. As for Harry Potter, it seems to be headed for another really "top-heavy" performance, with the majority of the audience coming out right away - i.e. organized school parties of kids and such. So as far as total gross goes, I expect TTT to out-perform Chamber of Secrets overall, but not with the opening.

The $300M mark is a distinct possibility, and probably a given.

Take into account though, that FOTR opened in a far less competitive market. I know that within a week of TTT I will be seeing Chicago, Gangs of New York and Catch Me If You Can, all early big-name Oscar-touted movies that have got my hype machine rolling.

[Millane]

No i think TTT can outdo spiderman... and it will definately out do HP...
Because with FotR i found that like star wars people went and saw it a few times at least... with TTT it is said to be a lot better than FotR and more people will be interested in the larger amount of violence and i think that the repeat viewers will go bigger

[viggosbeard]

I think there will be an initial increase, but this will even off to about the same as fotr - im sure pj would be happy with that !

[Andúril]

My estimation is a $60m opening weekend, with a $310-320m overall domestic gross. TTT will never touch Spidey ($117m+- opening w/e, if I remember correctly).

[bropous]

I don't have a guess as to actual numbers, but IP's analysis seems sound.

I certainly think that Two Towers will outperform Fellowship, and Return will outdo both. I know I will be doing my bit again...

[BeardofPants]

I hope Harry Potter does better. :p

[bropous]

I think a certain Jackson-hating Kiwi sheila needs a kick in the beard......

[j/k, BoP!]

[Andúril]

Ouch! :eek:

[BeardofPants]

You're one to speak, you purist. :mad: ;)

[markedel]

It may outdo FOTR-a larger base, likely repeat viewings etc. ROTK doing the best? I'm not sure.

[Andúril]

Hmm.....can anyone say "ESB"?

[gdl96]

ROTK will easily do best. The fan base will definately rise once again after TTT, and since it may also do better at the Oscars that FOTR, it might also make people want to see it.

[bropous]

I can SAY "ESB".......but I prefer to DRINK it!

[IronParrot]

"Hmm.....can anyone say "ESB"?"
Um, it actually underperformed the original Star Wars at the box office, despite being generally considered even better. Or is that the point you're trying to make?

[Ben]

Looks like we were right on target with that opening.

TTT just got the best non-holiday Monday ever, with an estimated $13.5 million. This coming weekend is always among the biggest of the year, and hopefully TTT won't have more than a 25% drop. So far everything is going well, but "Catch Me if You Can" might dethrone it (its reviews are very good).